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曹建海的博客

经济理论总要被验证的,因此经济学家必须讲真话

 
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mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr年<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr4<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr月<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr7<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr日<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr 财新网<=SPAN" hr<=P" hri<p STYLE="TexT-inDenT: 18pt;"u" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr <fcht STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 楷体_GB2312,楷体a"u" hr“全民炒房”业已形成,“s侔唇摇蓖贫私记考郾┱牵泄康夭谐∏熬翱坝<=FONT" hr<=SPAN" hr<=P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr 【背景】“地段决定价格”的楼市规则在北京被颠覆。今年<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr3<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr月,北京首次出现远郊区新房价格超过城区次新房的现象。<=SPAN" hr</P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr 据北京中原三级市场研究部统计6<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr3<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr月底开盘的项目中,处于北京东郊的通州区部分商品房单价已经接近<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr3<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystrew bd an';"u" hr万元。而同在<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr3<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystrew bd an';"u" hr月开盘的东四环外某项目售价也仅为<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr2.3<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr万元<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr/<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr平方米。东三环、南二环等内城区不少二手房单价徘徊在两万元,远远比不上郊区新盘价格。<=SPAN" hr</P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr 北京东、北、南部郊区的房价las恢备欧杩裆险侵械谋本┓考邸八谴摺保路康ゼ墼缫淹黄仆蛟F渲校ㄖ萸欠考凵险亲羁靗as彩钦欠畲蟮摹<=SPAN" hr</P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp; ref=<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr年初春通州新城规划的出台,带来了通州区房价的飙涨。有开发商公开表lasㄖ菸蠢吹哪勘晔歉铣虾F侄罢獠皇敲挥锌赡艿氖虑椋皇鞘奔湮侍狻薄C科椒矫<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr2<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr万元左右的新盘定价las惨馕蹲牛ㄖ萸姆考墼<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hrf=<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr年间飙升了近<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hrf=<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystrew bd an';"u" hr倍。<=SPAN" hr</P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;</exp STYLE="mso;/excerun: yesa"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;<=SPAN" hr<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr 而受远郊区房价暴涨带动,东三环、南二环等房价缓涨区域的二手房正在进行衦pr轮的“补涨”。<=SPAN" hr<=P" hri<p STYLE="TexT-inDenT: 28pt; mso;nbsrad=dt-b un0:2.芯克芯吭眘s="t"认为,城郊区房价倒挂是不正"> 现象。目前北京高房价是人为“制造”出来的繁荣。<=SPAN" hr</P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hriss="t"指出,城区次新房="si首付比例高,贷款相对复杂,而且有不少交易要求一次性付款 鸦裢痘叩那囗6谀壳敖峡硭傻男糯呦拢写罅啃路咳胧械慕记匀晃痘叻溆刀痢<=SPAN" hr</P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hriss="t"相信,房价暴涨与“s侔唇摇泵芮泄亓R布赐ü霸旒佟惫悍浚靡械那ネ蹲剩约旱美 而让银行承担风险。他援引一位金融界人士的观察指出,“s侔唇摇痹谀壳捌毡榇嬖凇<=SPAN" hr</P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hri诸多现象可资佐证:目前有大量房地产商和炒房者到中小城市或是农村,用未在城市买过商品房的人的名义购房;同时,目前<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr90%<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr以上的购房人提供的收入证明可能存在水分;="si很多购房合同面签改为代签,相当多银行在放贷前甚至没有见过购房人。<=SPAN" hr</P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr 中国人民银行营业管理部近期发布的报告next6今年一季度,北京有购房需求的居民中,投资性购房居民占比达礵了<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr23.1%<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr,创近两年以来的新高。作为最基本的民生产品,房地产已成为地方政府、开发商和公众最重要的投资工具,“全民炒房”之势业已显露。<=SPAN" hr</P" hri<p" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;&ttp;nbsp;<=SPAN" hri</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr ="si投资获利> 悴慵勇耄鼻耙恍┐蟪鞘械姆考鬯剑喽杂诘钡鼐用竦目芍涫杖雔as丫锏d了超乎想象的高度。比如北京,建成区的房价与家庭收入比目前s丫<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr30<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; FonT-siZe: 14pt; mso; ii-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an'; mso;idtsi-ght:2family: 'ntBystref bd an';"u" hr倍,房价与年租金之比则超过了<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-siZe: 14pt;"u騆ANG="EN-US"u騒MLLANG="EN-US"u" hr50<=SPAN" hr</exp STYLE="FonT-FAMiLY: 宋体; 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