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英国金融时报专访:中国房地产价格两年后可能下跌一半  

2009-04-16 07:57:00|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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中国房地产价格两年后可能下跌一半

2009年04月14日 来源:FT中文网

  [提要]中国社会科学院(CASS)教授曹建海表示,就中期而言,房地产市场明显的反弹是不可持续的,这种反弹是由流动性和欺诈活动推动的,而不是出于真实的需求。

房地产市场和出口是过去10年中国经济繁荣的主要推动力量。这两个市场的暴跌已带来了严重影响。

中国政府的主要智囊机构——中国社会科学院(CASS)教授曹建海表示,就中期而言,房地产市场明显的反弹是不可持续的,这种反弹是由流动性和欺诈活动推动的,而不是出于真实的需求。

曹建海向英国《金融时报》表示,预计未来两年城市平均房价将较2008年底水平下跌40%至50%。他表示:“短期房价可能不会下跌,但我预计明年开始大幅下跌,随后是许多年的停滞。”鉴于曹建海作为官方经济学家的影响力,他被称为房地产市场的“三剑客”之一。

中国国家统计局(NBS)昨日发布的数据显示,3月份,中国70个城市的平均房价同比下跌1.3%,但环比上升0.2%。

这打破了房价连续7个月下跌的局面,并伴随着交易量的回升。第一季度房屋销售面积同比增长8.7%,而2008年全年下降20.3%。

住宅市场领头羊上海的房地产中介机构表示,在政府财政刺激措施、房价不断下跌和自住业者蓄积已久的需求推动下,房地产市场似乎已经见底。

但曹建海称,初步调查发现,有不少例子表明,房地产开发商正利用虚假网签、零首付和假按揭等大造声势,并高价把公寓房产脱手倒国有银行的账目上。这些银行正面临北京的巨大压力,要求他们快速增加放贷以推动经济增长。

曹建海表示,就全国而言,平均房价在2003年和2008年中达到顶峰的期间增长了两倍,目前是人均收入的10至12倍。

 

China property prices ‘likely to halve’
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

Published: April 13 2009 

    Property prices in China are likely to halve over the next two years, a top government researcher has predicted in a powerful signal that the country’s economic downturn faces further challenges despite recent positive data.
    The property market, along with exports, were leading drivers of the booming Chinese economy over the past decade and the slumps in both have taken a heavy toll.
    Cao Jianhai, professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a leading government think tank, said an apparent rebound in the property market was unsustainable over the medium term and being driven by a flood of liquidity and fraudulent activity rather than real demand.
    He told the Financial Times he expected average urban residential property prices to fall by 40 to 50 per cent over the next two years from their levels at the end of 2008.
    “Prices may not fall in the near term but I expect a collapse starting next year, followed by many years of stagnation,” said Mr Cao, known as one of the “three swordsmen” of the real estate market because of his influence as an official economist.
    Average urban housing prices across 70 cities in China fell 1.3 per cent from a year earlier in March but were up 0.2 per cent from February, according to figures released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.
    That broke seven months of sequential declines and was accompanied by a rebound in transaction volumes.
    Residential property sales rose 8.7 per cent from a year earlier in the first quarter in terms of floor space sold, compared with a fall of 20.3 per cent for the whole of 2008.
    Real estate agents in the residential property bellwether of Shanghai said the market seemed to have bottomed out as a result of government stimulus measures, falling prices and pent-up demand from owner-occupiers.
    But Mr Cao said preliminary government investigations had turned up numerous examples of real estate developers using fake mortgages to offload apartments on to the books of state-run banks facing enormous pressure from Beijing to rapidly increase lending to boost the economy.
    Sales are also being driven by real pent-up demand from urban citizens, but Mr Cao said many were jumping into a false rebound because they had never seen house prices drop before.
    Before widespread privatisation of real estate began in the late1990s, most city dwellers were allotted housing by their work unit or by the state. The first private home mortgages since the 1949 communist revolution were granted barely a decade ago by state-owned banks.
    At a national level, average housing prices tripled between 2003 and the peak in mid-2008 and are now 10 to 12 times average income, which means 60 per cent of homebuyers’ monthly income must go to mortgage repayments, Mr Cao said.
    The volume of empty apartments across the country hit 91m sq metres at the end of last year, up 32.3 per cent from a year earlier, according to official figures.
    Those numbers included neither the huge volumes of completed real estate projects whose owners are waiting for market conditions to improve before they put them on the market, nor the estimated 587m sq m or apartments sold in the past five years but left empty by their owners.

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